I did a quick tally of the novels being bandied about over at the Sad Puppies site’s page for Best Novel. Now, I haven’t weighted the results, and if they toss out the guys who seconded everything AND posted lengthy lists of their own, the end results might be a bit different. This isn’t done by any statistical analysis, just a quick look at what’s being talked about.
In no particular order, the books seem to be:
A Long Time Until Now – Michael Z Williamson
Seveneves – Neal Stephenson
Uprooted – Naomi Novik
Honor At Stake – Declan Finn
The Just City – Jo Walton
Somewhither – John C Wright
The Fifth Season – NK Jemisin
The Aeronaut’s Windlass – Jim Butcher
Nethereal – Brian Niemeier
Strands of Sorrow: Black Tide Rising – John Ringo
Correia’s Son of the Black Sword would probably bump off The Fifth Season or The Just City if he doesn’t/didn’t say “Don’t put me forward this year”.
If SP4 were only going with 5 noms (which they’re not), the list would probably have been:
Somewhither, Seveneves, Uprooted, the Aeronaut’s Windlass and a toss-up between Long Time Until Now and Honor at Stake.
Again, this is just my guessing based on what’s out there in the public forum (per Brad Torgersen, I believe, SP3 included recommendations from emails and skype or IRC chats); I could be completely off, miscounted or, as I said, given undue weight to the certain seconders who seemed to second every over thing (try saying that three times fast!). Ultimately, the call will come down to Paulk, Hoyt and Green; it’ll be interesting to see how close my guesses were.
Disclaimer: Whatever the puppies decide, my nom vote is going to Torchship. I doubt I’ll be a particularly active participant in whatever happens this year.